Global warming and its side effects on the aviation industry

Climate change and global warming are major issues in the aviation sector. The industry is often cited as a significant contributor to the problem – a challenge it is responding to with new aircraft designs, SAF fuel usage, and net-zero carbon commitments. There is another side to this, however. Changing climate and temperatures will affect aircraft operation in several ways.

Effects on aircraft take-off

One of the clearest changes will be the impact on aircraft ground performance and take-off. As temperatures rise, less dense air will mean less lift force experienced by aircraft wings. Put simply, this means take-off runs will need to be longer or total take-off weight reduced.

Operators are, of course, already well aware of this. Take-off performance in hot (and high altitude) locations is very different. This is well factored into flight planning, with some aircraft types unable to operate in some locations. As temperatures change, more places will be affected by this. The current goal is to keep the average temperature rise to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius. There will be differences around the world, though, and possibilities of more extremes. Just look at the record high temperatures seen in the UK in July 2022.

Aviation Guides

Increased use of weight restrictions

Longer runways are a possible solution, but this is not an immediate option. The use of weight restrictions for aircraft is a more practical solution.

A study by US scientists in 2015 looked at this. This investigated the performance of a typical Boeing 737-800 aircraft at several US airports. The conclusion was that rising temperatures would lead to an increase of 50% to 200% in days with aircraft weight restrictions.

Smaller aircraft often operate from airports with smaller runways, so they are likely to suffer similar restrictions. No public study has tried to quantify this yet. But for any operator, weight restrictions lead to more restrictive operations – either shorter range with less fuel or potentially less profitable with lower passenger numbers or cargo weight.

Changes in wind patterns on the ground

Another effect of global warming will be changed wind patterns. This will have an impact both on the ground and in the air.

On the ground, winds are slowing in general, and the prevailing wind direction is changing. A weaker headwind will escalate the problem of longer take-off distances. Changing direction will be an inconvenience at some airports – where runways have been designed and orientated with prevailing wind patterns.

More turbulence in flight

The situation is different in the air with changes in wind patterns. Higher temperatures are causing a substantial increase in wind shear in the jet stream. Investigations already show that this has increased by around 15% since the 1970s, and expectations are for further increases.

Changes in the jet stream will affect flight planning, duration, and fuel consumption. Operators have been used to this for decades, however. What is more problematic is that the changes in wind shear will lead to more clear air turbulence. It is this “invisible” turbulent movement of air masses that makes flights so uncomfortable. Aircraft can withstand increases in this – but passengers may not be so impressed.

Paul Williams, a professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading, has stated that he expects such turbulence to double or triple over the next few decades. With more turbulent areas around, it will be harder for pilots to avoid it in flight.

Rising sea levels could flood airports

As a final consideration of climate change, don’t forget the expectations that sea levels will rise. This will not just affect outlying small coral atolls and islands. There are worrying predictions for several major countries.

A study from the Newcastle University School of Engineering found that a global temperature rise of two degrees Celsius would leave 100 airports below sea level. This includes the major airports of London City, Newark, New York La Guardia, and Shanghai Hongqiao. A further 364 airports would be at risk of flooding.

The current Paris Agreement on climate change aims to keep temperature rises below two degrees Celsius (with the aim of a 1.5-degree maximum). However, there is a long way to go until we know about this, and such predictions should not be taken lightly.

Final Thoughts

The climate is changing – how much, of course, we cannot yet be sure. Aviation will change in many ways as it plays a part in minimising this. It may also have to adapt to perform in the new climatic conditions. In the long term, we may see changes introduced in aircraft aerodynamics to increase take-off performance or cope with in-flight turbulence. Aircraft design has changed many times in the past, and it can again. Changes in airport design and construction are harder. New airports will, of course, incorporate new climatic conditions, but existing ones will have to adapt or restrict operations as the climate changes.

Sources:

Back To Top