Pilot shortage, is there or isn’t there one?

There is a lot of discussion about shortages in the aviation industry at the moment. Many areas are struggling– hospitality is restricting operations, baggage handling is hugely overstretched, and some airports are even restricting passenger numbers. One area where we hear mixed messages is pilot staffing and recruitment. In general, there is a shortage – and likely to be one for some time – but it may not be as bad as portrayed. There are also big differences between markets and regions.

The current shortage

To see the overall state and prediction, consider estimates that have been made. Boeing, for example, made a claim in July 2022 that over 600,000 new pilots will be needed between now and 2041. This is to both replenish retiring pilots and to meet expansion. The manufacturer also expects global aircraft fleets to double over the same period.

Oliver Wyman has published independent research into the area, and it expects a shortage of 34,000 pilots to appear by 2025 – but noted that it could be as much as 50,000.

Airline actions echo these predictions. American Airlines, as just one example, has stated that it has plans to hire 4,000 new pilots by 2023. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby stated in mid-2021 that he expected a pilot shortage to hit in the coming years. The airline has taken action, planning to train 5,000 pilots by 2030.

Aviation Guides

Shortages building before the pandemic

The pilot shortage is not new. Several factors have been building for some years and are now contributing to the pilot shortage. These include:

Retiring “baby boomers.” There is a large generation of pilots now reaching retirement age. Many countries require pilots to retire at age 65. There has been discussion about extending this, but it seems unlikely in the short term.

Shortage of military pilots. Many countries (including the US and UK) rely heavily on trained pilots moving from military to civilian roles. With less conflict, this supply has diminished.

Cost of training. It takes time, and a lot of money, to train as a commercial pilot. The recession of 2008/2009 certainly did not help new joiners to the industry, Nor has less availability of airline sponsorship for training.

Increase in minimum hours. In 2013, the US FAA increased the minimum hours required to qualify for a commercial license to 1,5000. In most other countries, this is lower at 250 hours. This has had a detrimental impact on new pilots.

Volatile job market. The past years have been difficult for pilots. It is obviously a very expensive and committed career to get into, and your future job prospects depend very much on factors outside your control. The recession of the 2000s slowed demand and left many out of work. Things then picked up dramatically, but of course, COVID has changed everything again.

Has COVID made the situation worse?

Just as it had in many areas, COVID has made the situation worse – at least in the short term. Or, to be more precise, airline responses to COVID have.

Many airlines laid pilots off during the pandemic (or shortly after if furlough commitments dictated). Persuading staff to return to the industry is difficult. There has also been pressure on salaries. Many airlines cut pay during the pandemic.

This is understandable to an extent. Airlines were in a very difficult situation during the pandemic, with vastly reduced incomes and huge uncertainty over the future of travel. Salaries have remained lower in many areas, even as rapidly rising inflation worsens the situation for employees.

Longer term, the expectations remain similar. Boeing’s current prediction of just over 600,000 pilots needed by 2041 was slightly higher pre-pandemic (at just over 760,000).

Not a problem everywhere

It is important to remember that the crisis differs between markets and regions. It has long been the case that smaller, regional airlines (particularly in the US) are struggling. Flagship and large legacy airlines less so.
Many of the factors affecting pilot supply have hit smaller airlines harder. These airlines rely more on newer pilots entering the market. With changes in military transfer, fewer pilots affording training, and an increase in hours requirements in the US, this supply has diminished.

Regionally, there are regularly shifting changes. For a long time, there was a major pilot shortage in China and some other Asian countries as airlines expanded rapidly. There are many cases of such airlines offering very high salaries to attract experienced pilots from other countries. This has now settled down somewhat, with more locally trained pilots available.

As for Boeing’s market analysis, it expects the biggest needs to be in North America, Europe, and South East Asia. Of its prediction for 600,000 new pilots needed, 128,000 will be for North America and 122,000 for Europe. Oliver Wyman’s research likewise expects the biggest shortfall in North America. However, it predicts the Middle East will be the next worse off.

Solving the problem – pay and career promotion

The aviation website Simple Flying made some nice analysis of the shortage situation. This was pre-COVID, but the fundamentals remain the same. They discuss how the problem is not one of shortage, but of pay.

Like in many industries, increasing pay and conditions for pilots will encourage more to stay in the industry. It will also, critically, give young people the confidence to self-train as pilots. There is no shortage of people who would choose a career as a pilot, but a fluctuating market will undoubtedly put many people off.

There are other strategies that will help too. Airline sponsorship is a proven way to encourage pilots to train. These usually involve the airline covering training costs, then reclaiming from salaries over a fixed-term contract. British

Airways, as just one major example, had such a “Future Pilot Program” in place for many years, and we may see such schemes returning.

There could also be more promotion of career possibilities and efforts to make the industry more accessible to women and minority groups. Currently, only 8% of US pilots, for example, are women (according to the US pilot Institute).

Final Thoughts

The issue of pilot shortages will no doubt remain controversial for some time. Yes, some airlines are struggling to fill some roles. Taking a wider view, though, flying remains an attractive and popular career choice. The market has changed (both before and after COVID), and perhaps airlines have been slow to realise and respond to this. Ultimately, they will, and better pay, prospects, or sponsored training will be made available.

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